Urban flood priorities in Nigeria
High-LeveL review to inform the economic case for UK Investment
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Sayers P and Tanjangco B (2021). Urban flood priorities in Nigeria: High-LeveL review to inform the economic case for UK investment. Funded by UKAID and FCDO.
Nigeria has Africa’s biggest economy and a population of over 200 million people. The country faces numerous challenges as it struggles to achieve its sustainable development goals (SDGs), with flooding one of the most frequent and recurring challenges, having wide-reaching impacts. Moreover, climate change is set to increase floods through more severe and more frequent events, driven by changes in rainfall patterns and intensity, and rising sea levels.
Climate considerations are currently being embedded in the country’s plans and policies, and more recently (mid-2021), Nigeria submitted its nationally determined contributions (NDCs). However, embedding climate change into planning, and consequently into investment choices, remains challenging with an absence of strategic flood risk management adaptation plans and options.
Assuming the floodplain remains undefended, expected annual damages (EAD) from flooding today would be ~GBP 82.7 billion (include residential damage and a simple approximation of loss of economic activity), with damage around GBP 28 billion in urban areas. Delta, Rivers, Lagos, Bayelsa, Borno and Ogun are all highlighted as states with the largest potential damage.
Sayers and Partners and ODI (as lead) were commissioned by the FCDO to recommend several intervention options to reduce flood risk and undertake an initial high-level economic appraisal of options.
Nigeria has Africa’s biggest economy and a population of over 200 million people. The country faces numerous challenges as it struggles to achieve its sustainable development goals (SDGs), with flooding one of the most frequent and recurring challenges, having wide-reaching impacts. Moreover, climate change is set to increase floods through more severe and more frequent events, driven by changes in rainfall patterns and intensity, and rising sea levels.
Climate considerations are currently being embedded in the country’s plans and policies, and more recently (mid-2021), Nigeria submitted its nationally determined contributions (NDCs). However, embedding climate change into planning, and consequently into investment choices, remains challenging with an absence of strategic flood risk management adaptation plans and options.
Assuming the floodplain remains undefended, expected annual damages (EAD) from flooding today would be ~GBP 82.7 billion (include residential damage and a simple approximation of loss of economic activity), with damage around GBP 28 billion in urban areas. Delta, Rivers, Lagos, Bayelsa, Borno and Ogun are all highlighted as states with the largest potential damage.
Sayers and Partners and ODI (as lead) were commissioned by the FCDO to recommend several intervention options to reduce flood risk and undertake an initial high-level economic appraisal of options.