Future Flood Explorer (FFE)
Our Future Flood Explorer (FFE) toolset has been specifically designed to enable a credible exploration of of how present day flood risk may change under a range of alternative climate and socioeconomic projections, and how effective different adaptation policies may be in offsetting these changes. The Future Flood Explorer (FFE) represents coastal, fluvial, surface water and groundwater sources of flooding, and can quantify risk to a wide range of receptors such as residential and non-residential properties, infrastructure sites, and transport links. Analysis is used local scale information on flood hazards, social and infrastructure vulnerable, as well as property exposure and existing flood risk management activities to enable a coherent assessment across a a range of scales from multiple national, to national, to regional, to neighbourhood.
A key capability of the Future Flood Explorer is the ability to quantify the effects of adaptation strategies on risk, including defence construction, rural and urban catchment management, property level resilience measures, spatial planning and forecasting/warning, and their whole life costs. This supports adaptation investment policy choices at a range of scale. The FFE is an exploratory tools, design to support strategy development and not scheme appraisal.
A basic introduction to the innovative here. A More in-depth description and discussion of the continued evolution of the FFE is given below.
A key capability of the Future Flood Explorer is the ability to quantify the effects of adaptation strategies on risk, including defence construction, rural and urban catchment management, property level resilience measures, spatial planning and forecasting/warning, and their whole life costs. This supports adaptation investment policy choices at a range of scale. The FFE is an exploratory tools, design to support strategy development and not scheme appraisal.
A basic introduction to the innovative here. A More in-depth description and discussion of the continued evolution of the FFE is given below.
PublicatIONS - DESCRIPTIONS AND APPLICATIONS OF the FFE
Griffin, A., Kay, A.L., Sayers, P., Bell, V., Stewart, E. and Carr, S., (2024). Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 28(12), pp.2635-2650.
Sayers, P., Lindley, S., Carr, S. and Figueroa-Alfaro, R., 2023. The impacts of climate change on population groups in Scotland. Sayers and Partners, University of Manchester and ClimateXChange. http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/3843
Sayers, P., Griffin, A., Lowe, J., Bernie, D., Carr, S., Kay, A. and Stewart, L., 2023. Beyond the local climate change uplift–The importance of changes in spatial structure on future fluvial flood risk in Great Britain. Natural Hazards, pp.1-26.
Bart J.J.M. van den Hurk, Paul Sayers et al, (2023). Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events, Climate Risk Management, Volume 40,2023,100500,ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500.
Haigh, I.D., Dornbusch, U., Brown, J., Lyddon, C., Nicholls, R.J., Penning-Roswell, E. and Sayers, P. (2022) Climate change impacts on coastal flooding relevant to the UK and Ireland. MCCIP Science Review 2022, 18pp.
Sayers, P.B., Ashley, R, Carr, S., Eccleston P, Horritt M, Horton, B, Miller, J (2022). Surface water – Risk and investment needs. A report by Sayers and Partners for the National Infrastructure Commission, London. Supporting the NIC Recommendations here
Rudd, A.C., Kay, A.L. and Sayers, P.B., 2022. Climate change impacts on flood peaks in Britain for a range of global mean surface temperature changes. Journal of Flood Risk Management, p.e12863.
Sayers, P., Moss, C., Carr, S. and Payo, A., 2022. Responding to climate change around England's coast - The scale of the transformational challenge. Journal of Ocean & Coastal Management. Volume 225, 15 June 2022, 106187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2022.106187
A Russell, P Sayers (2022). Assessing Future Flood Risk and Developing Integrated Flood Risk Management Strategies: A Case Study from the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Journal of Sustainability 14 (21), 13945
Sayers, P, Horrrit M, Kay AL, Mauz J, Carr S (2021). Next generation exploration of UK future flood risks: High resolution climate, population and adaptation futures. Proceedings of the FLOODrisk 2020 - 4th European Conference on Flood Risk Management
Sayers PB., Carr S., Moss C. and Didcock A. (2020) Flood disadvantage - Social vulnerable and ethnic minorities. Research undertaken by Sayers and Partners for Flood Re. Published by Sayers and Partners (SPL), London.
Sayers, PB., Horritt, M, Carr, S, Kay, A, and Mauz, J (2020) Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3): Future flood risk. Research undertaken by Sayers and Partners for the Committee on Climate Change (using the Future Flood Explorer). Published by Sayers and Partners and the Committee on Climate Change, London.
Westcott, M., Ward, J., Surminski, S, Sayers, P., Bresch, D. and Clare, B., (2020). Be prepared–exploring future climate-related risk for residential and commercial real-estate portfolios. The Journal of Alternative Investments Summer 2020, jai.2020.1.100; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/jai.2020.1.100
Haigh, I.D., Nicholls, R.J., Penning Roswell, E. and Sayers, P. (2020) Impacts of climate change on coastal flooding, relevant to the coastal and marine environment around the UK. MCCIP Science Review 2020, 546–565.
CISL (2019). Physical risk framework: Understanding the impacts of climate change on real estate lending and investment portfolios. A report for CISL Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership by Vivid Economics and Sayers and Partners - Westcott, Sayers, Ward and Surminski
Sayers P.B, Brisley R, Wingfield S, Warren S, Mattingley, P, Robinson, P. Horritt, M and Lamb, R.A national analytics toolset to support an exploration of alternative investments in flood risk management infrastructure, A report for the National Infrastructure Commission by JBA and Sayers and Partners.
Sayers, P., Penning-Rowsell, E., Horritt, M. (2017). Flood vulnerability, risk and social disadvantage: Current and future patterns in the UK. Journal of Regional Environmental Change. DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1252-z
Sayers et al (2016) Believe it or not? The challenge of validating large scale probabilistic risk models. Proceedings of Floodrisk2016
Paul Sayers, Rob Lamb, Mike Panzeri, Hayley Bowman, Jim Hall, Matt Horritt and Edmund Penning-Rowsell
E3S Web Conf., 7 (2016) 11004 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160711004
Sayers et al (2016). The analysis of future flood risk in the UK using the Future Flood Explorer (FFE). Proceedings of Floodrisk2016.
Paul Sayers, Matt Horritt, Edmund Penning-Rowsell, Andrew McKenzie and David Thompson. E3S Web Conf., 7 (2016) 21005
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160721005
Sayers, P.B., Horritt, M. S., Penning-Rowsell, E., and Mckenzie, A. (2015). Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017: Projections of future flood risk in the UK. Pages 125. Sayers and Partners LLP report for the Committee on Climate Change.
Sayers, P., Lindley, S., Carr, S. and Figueroa-Alfaro, R., 2023. The impacts of climate change on population groups in Scotland. Sayers and Partners, University of Manchester and ClimateXChange. http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/3843
Sayers, P., Griffin, A., Lowe, J., Bernie, D., Carr, S., Kay, A. and Stewart, L., 2023. Beyond the local climate change uplift–The importance of changes in spatial structure on future fluvial flood risk in Great Britain. Natural Hazards, pp.1-26.
Bart J.J.M. van den Hurk, Paul Sayers et al, (2023). Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events, Climate Risk Management, Volume 40,2023,100500,ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500.
Haigh, I.D., Dornbusch, U., Brown, J., Lyddon, C., Nicholls, R.J., Penning-Roswell, E. and Sayers, P. (2022) Climate change impacts on coastal flooding relevant to the UK and Ireland. MCCIP Science Review 2022, 18pp.
Sayers, P.B., Ashley, R, Carr, S., Eccleston P, Horritt M, Horton, B, Miller, J (2022). Surface water – Risk and investment needs. A report by Sayers and Partners for the National Infrastructure Commission, London. Supporting the NIC Recommendations here
Rudd, A.C., Kay, A.L. and Sayers, P.B., 2022. Climate change impacts on flood peaks in Britain for a range of global mean surface temperature changes. Journal of Flood Risk Management, p.e12863.
Sayers, P., Moss, C., Carr, S. and Payo, A., 2022. Responding to climate change around England's coast - The scale of the transformational challenge. Journal of Ocean & Coastal Management. Volume 225, 15 June 2022, 106187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2022.106187
A Russell, P Sayers (2022). Assessing Future Flood Risk and Developing Integrated Flood Risk Management Strategies: A Case Study from the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Journal of Sustainability 14 (21), 13945
Sayers, P, Horrrit M, Kay AL, Mauz J, Carr S (2021). Next generation exploration of UK future flood risks: High resolution climate, population and adaptation futures. Proceedings of the FLOODrisk 2020 - 4th European Conference on Flood Risk Management
Sayers PB., Carr S., Moss C. and Didcock A. (2020) Flood disadvantage - Social vulnerable and ethnic minorities. Research undertaken by Sayers and Partners for Flood Re. Published by Sayers and Partners (SPL), London.
Sayers, PB., Horritt, M, Carr, S, Kay, A, and Mauz, J (2020) Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3): Future flood risk. Research undertaken by Sayers and Partners for the Committee on Climate Change (using the Future Flood Explorer). Published by Sayers and Partners and the Committee on Climate Change, London.
Westcott, M., Ward, J., Surminski, S, Sayers, P., Bresch, D. and Clare, B., (2020). Be prepared–exploring future climate-related risk for residential and commercial real-estate portfolios. The Journal of Alternative Investments Summer 2020, jai.2020.1.100; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/jai.2020.1.100
Haigh, I.D., Nicholls, R.J., Penning Roswell, E. and Sayers, P. (2020) Impacts of climate change on coastal flooding, relevant to the coastal and marine environment around the UK. MCCIP Science Review 2020, 546–565.
CISL (2019). Physical risk framework: Understanding the impacts of climate change on real estate lending and investment portfolios. A report for CISL Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership by Vivid Economics and Sayers and Partners - Westcott, Sayers, Ward and Surminski
Sayers P.B, Brisley R, Wingfield S, Warren S, Mattingley, P, Robinson, P. Horritt, M and Lamb, R.A national analytics toolset to support an exploration of alternative investments in flood risk management infrastructure, A report for the National Infrastructure Commission by JBA and Sayers and Partners.
Sayers, P., Penning-Rowsell, E., Horritt, M. (2017). Flood vulnerability, risk and social disadvantage: Current and future patterns in the UK. Journal of Regional Environmental Change. DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1252-z
Sayers et al (2016) Believe it or not? The challenge of validating large scale probabilistic risk models. Proceedings of Floodrisk2016
Paul Sayers, Rob Lamb, Mike Panzeri, Hayley Bowman, Jim Hall, Matt Horritt and Edmund Penning-Rowsell
E3S Web Conf., 7 (2016) 11004 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160711004
Sayers et al (2016). The analysis of future flood risk in the UK using the Future Flood Explorer (FFE). Proceedings of Floodrisk2016.
Paul Sayers, Matt Horritt, Edmund Penning-Rowsell, Andrew McKenzie and David Thompson. E3S Web Conf., 7 (2016) 21005
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160721005
Sayers, P.B., Horritt, M. S., Penning-Rowsell, E., and Mckenzie, A. (2015). Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017: Projections of future flood risk in the UK. Pages 125. Sayers and Partners LLP report for the Committee on Climate Change.
Reports and TOOLS SUPPORTED BY tHE FFE
2022 National Infrastructure Commission - Surface water management investment needs
2022 Kent Future Flood Explorer - Cloud to Coast adaptation
2021 AquaCAT - Event-based climate change risk assessment
2021 Coastal transitions - assessment of the coastal relocation
2019 Assessment of the transition risk for Flood Re
2019 Physical risk framework: Understanding the impacts of climate change on real estate lending and investment portfolios. A report for CISL Cambridge Institute for Sustainability
2018-2020 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3)
2018 National Infrastructure Assessment - Flood risk and investment assessment (NIC)
2016 UK Future flood disadvantage under climate change (JRF)
2015 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2)
DEVELOPERS
FFE is owned by Sayers and Partners
Main contributors to its development have been and continue to be
Dr Paul Sayers, Sam Carr, Dr Matt Horritt, and Prof Edmund Penning-Rowsell
Others
Many others have reviewed the FFE including Committee on Climate Change and others. The comments provided have been, and continue to be, useful
Main contributors to its development have been and continue to be
Dr Paul Sayers, Sam Carr, Dr Matt Horritt, and Prof Edmund Penning-Rowsell
Others
Many others have reviewed the FFE including Committee on Climate Change and others. The comments provided have been, and continue to be, useful