Publications - BooksSustainable Water Infrastructure: A strategic approach to combining natural and built infrastructure. Sayers, P.B., Li Y, Tickner D, Huang, H, Bird, J, Ying, L, Luo, P, Yue, Z, Speed, R., Pegram G., and Acreman, M. (2023) Published by UNESCO, Paris on behalf of WWF
Drought Risk Management: A strategic approach (2016). Sayers, P.B., Li Yuanyuan, Moncrieff, C, Li Jianqiang, Tickner, D., Xu Xiangyu, Speed, R., Li Aihua, Lei Gang, Qiu Bing, Wei Yu and Pegram G. (2016). Published in 2016 by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization 7, place de Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07SP, France © UNESCO 2016 ISBN 978-92-3-1000942 Flood Risk Management: A strategic approach (2013). P. Sayers, Y. Li, G. Galloway, E. Penning-Rowsell, F. Shen, K. Wen, Y. Chen, and T. Le Quesne. Published in 2013 by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization 7, place de Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07SP, France © UNESCO 2013 in association with Asian Development Bank, WWF-International and the GIWP, China. ISBN 978-92-3-001159-8. Flood Risk: Design, Management and Planning of Flood Defence Infrastructure (2012). Edited by Paul B Sayers. Publihsed by Thomas Telford for the Insitute of Civil Engineers (ICE). doi:10.1680/fr.41561 Handbook of flood risk science and management. (2010) Editors Pender et al. Published by Wiley on behalf of CIWEM, London. ISBN: 978-1-4051-8657-5. Foresight Future Flooding. (2007) Editor Thorne, C.R., Evans, E.P. and Penning-Rowsell, . Published by Thomas Telford for the Institute of Civil Engineers (ICE). ISBN: 978-0-7277-3449-5 Maximising the use and exchange of coastal data (2000). Millard and Sayers. CIRIA, London, ISBN: 978-0-86017-541-4 Risk management for UK reservoirs (Hughes et al). CIRIA, UK |
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Publications - selected papersSayers and Partners seek to publish their research as widely as possible. Some selected publications are below.
2024 Jenkins, K., Nicholls, R.J., Sayers, P.B, Redhead, J., Price, J., Pywell, R., He, Y., Tozer, N., Carr, S (2024) The UK Fens Climate Change Risk Assessment: Big challenges and strategic solutions. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich. Sayers P..B, and Read, J, Measures, H (2024) Ibadan Long-Term Flood Resilience Strategy. Commissioned by Oyo State. A report by Sayers and Partners available on request. Pasquier, U., Nicholls, R.J., Le Cozannet, G. and Sayers, P.B (2024), A Comparative Assessment of Accommodation Strategies Based on Elevated Buildings for Coastal Adaptation. Published in the Journal of Climate Risk Management. DOI: 10.17632/svb8nc9b7y.1 Smith, B.A., Birkinshaw, S., Lewis, E., McGrady, E. and Sayers, P.B., Physically Based Modelling of UK River Flows Under Climate Change: Datasets and Results. Frontiers in Water, Sector. Water and Climate Volume 6 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/frwa.2024.1468855. Griffin, A., Kay, A.L., Sayers, P., Bell, V., Stewart, E. and Carr, S., (2024). Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 28(12), pp.2635-2650. Sayers, P (2024). Compound Hazards Events Exploring their influence on flood protection and risk. Research Review. Available on request following approval from Office of Nuclear Regulation. Sayers P, Lawless, M, Hankin, B, Read, J, Dale, M Louis et al (2024) Urban climate resilience – Strategic flood risk assessment and investment planning for ten urban areas across Niger. For the World Bank. Available on request approval from the Bank. (JBA/Sayers/Landell Mills) 2023 Spendelow, B, Teng and Sayers, P (2023). Assessments on Climate Risk Knowledge and Impacts in Haiti: Strategic Actions. For the World Bank. Available on request approval from the Bank. (JBA/Sayers/Landell Mills) Sayers, P, Read J, Lawless, M (2023). Strategic Investment Plan Report Development of Actions for Flood Mitigation in Two Urban Areas in Burundi For the World Bank. Available on request approval from the Bank. (JBA/Sayers/Landell Mills) Sayers, P., Lindley, S., Carr, S. and Figueroa-Alfaro, R., 2023. The impacts of climate change on population groups in Scotland. Sayers and Partners, University of Manchester and ClimateXChange. http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/3843 UN FAO. 2023. Integrated flood management for resilient agrifood systems and rural development. Rome. Sayers, Acreman, Lifeng et al. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc9058en Sayers, P., Griffin, A., Lowe, J., Bernie, D., Carr, S., Kay, A. and Stewart, L., 2023. Beyond the local climate change uplift–The importance of changes in spatial structure on future fluvial flood risk in Great Britain. Natural Hazards, pp.1-26. Bernie, D., Garry, F., Jenkins, K., Arnell, N., Dawkins, L., Ford, A., Kennedy-Asser, A., O’Hare, P., Perks, R., Ramsey, V. and Sayers, P., (2023). What Has Been Learned About Converting Climate Hazard Data to Climate Risk Information? In Quantifying Climate Risk and Building Resilience in the UK (pp. 163-176). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Bart J.J.M. van den Hurk, Paul Sayers et al, (2023). Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events, Climate Risk Management, Volume 40,2023,100500,ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500. Sayers, P, Rodda, H, Penning-Rowsell, E, Hassan, A, Walker, R, Sharp, K, and Cunliffe, K (2023). Towards Equitable (2EQ) Trent Understanding the distributional equity associated with the Environment Agency’s Operational Services. A report for the Environment Agency published by Sayers and Partners LLP. Rehan, B. Sayers, P. Bell, V.A. Zulkafli, Z. Rameshwaran, P. (2023) Assessing and managing flood risk: a shared knowledge agenda - UK and Malaysia. Malaysia, with the Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM), 8pp. 2022 Haigh, I.D., Dornbusch, U., Brown, J., Lyddon, C., Nicholls, R.J., Penning-Roswell, E. and Sayers, P. Climate change impacts on coastal flooding relevant to the UK and Ireland. MCCIP Science Review 2022, 18pp. Sayers, P.B., Ashley, R, Carr, S., Eccleston P, Horritt M, Horton, B, Miller, J (2022). Surface water – Risk and investment needs. A report by Sayers and Partners for the National Infrastructure Commission, London. Supporting the NIC Recommendations here Elco E. Koks, D. Le Bars, A.H Essenfelder, S. Nirandjan & P. Sayers (2022): The impacts of coastal flooding and sea level rise on critical infrastructure: a novel storyline approach, Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2142741 Rudd, A.C., Kay, A.L. and Sayers, P.B., 2022. Climate change impacts on flood peaks in Britain for a range of global mean surface temperature changes. Journal of Flood Risk Management, p.e12863. A Griffin, A Kay, P Sayers, V Bell, E Stewart, S Carr (2022). Widespread flooding dynamics changing under climate change: characterising floods using UKCP18. Journal of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 1-18 Griffin, A., Kay, A., Stewart, E., & Sayers, P. (2022). Spatially coherent statistical simulation of widespread flooding events under climate change. Hydrology Research, 53(11), 1428-1440 https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.069 Sayers, P., Moss, C., Carr, S. and Payo, A., 2022. Responding to climate change around England's coast - The scale of the transformational challenge. Journal of Ocean & Coastal Management. Volume 225, 15 June 2022, 106187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2022.106187 A Russell, P Sayers (2022). Assessing Future Flood Risk and Developing Integrated Flood Risk Management Strategies: A Case Study from the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Journal of Sustainability 14 (21), 13945 E Fatdillah, BM Rehan, P Rameshwaran, VA Bell, Z Zulkafli, B Yusuf and P Sayers (2022) Spatial estimates of flood damage and risk are influenced by the underpinning DEM resolution: a case study in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Journal of Water 14 (14), 2208 Wilkinson, E., Frojmovic, M, Young, G, Sayers, P, Dupar, M, Granat, M, Archer, C, Neufville, L, Rouhaud,E, Morinière, M and Pouget N (2022) The Caribbean: a region of excellence for urban climate resilience. Published by the ODI as a Policy Brief. London: ODI (www.odi.org/en/publications/the-caribbean-a-region-ofexcellence-for-urban-climate-resilience-lifelong-learning-for-urban-planners/) Sayers, P.; Gersonius, B.; Özerol, G.; Nugraha, E.; Schipper, C.A. A Framework for Cloud to Coast Adaptation: Maturity and Experiences from across the North Sea. Land 2022, 11, 950. https:// doi.org/10.3390/land11060950 2021 Sayers P and Tanjangco B (2021). Urban flood priorities in Nigeria: High-LeveL review to inform the economic case for UK investment. Funded by UKAID and FCDO. A publication lead by the ODI. Sayers, P (2021). Flood risk and adaptation planning: Case study of the tidal Thames, London. Publication of GIZ China. Programme for adapting to climate change in China. Accepted 2020 Sayers, P (2021). National Climate Change Risk Assessment and Adaptation: A case study of England. Publication of GIZ China. Programme for adapting to climate change in China. Accepted 2020. Pathirana, A.; den Heijer, F; Sayers, P.B (2021). Water Infrastructure Asset Management Is Evolving. Journal of Infrastructures 2021, 6, 90. https://www.mdpi.com/2412-3811/6/6/90 Acreman, M., A. Smith, L. Charters, D. Tickner, J. J. Opperman, S. Acreman, F. Edwards, P. Sayers and F. Chivava (2021). Evidence for the effectiveness of nature-based solutions to water issues in Africa. Environmental Research Letters. Volume 16, Number 6 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0210 Sayers, P.B., Borodyna, O., Tanjangco, B. and Didcock, A. (2021) Scoping opportunities, barriers and enablers of nature-based solutions in Russia: the REACT programme’s UK–Russia exchange on climate change transition. London: ODI and SPL. Sayers, P., Gersonius, B., den Heijer, F., Klerk, W.J., Fröhle, P., Jordan, P., Ciocan, U.R., Rijke, J., Vonk, B. and Ashley, R., (2021). Towards adaptive asset management in flood risk management: A policy framework. Journal of Water Security, 12, p.100085. Sayers, P, Horrrit M, Kay AL, Mauz J, Carr S (2021). Next generation exploration of UK future flood risks: High resolution climate, population and adaptation futures. Proceedings of the FLOODrisk 2020 - 4th European Conference on Flood Risk Management Bell, Victoria; Rehan, Balqis; Hasan-Basri, Bakti; Houghton-Carr, Helen; Miller, James; Reynard, Nick; Sayers, Paul; Stewart, Elizabeth; Toriman, Mohd Ekhwan; Yusuf, Badronnisa; Zulkafli, Zed; Carr, Sam; Chapman, Rhian; Davies, Helen; Fatdillah, Eva; Horritt, Matt; Kabirzad, Shabir; Kaelin, Alexandra; Okeke, Tochukwu; Rameshwaran, Ponnambalam; Simpson, Mike (2021). Flood Impacts Across Scales: towards an integrated multi-scale approach for Malaysia Proceedings of the FLOODrisk 2020 - 4th European Conference on Flood Risk Management DOI: 10.3311/FloodRisk2020.9.6 2020 Sayers, P (2020). Strategic planning for flood resilience: Four prerequisites. A publication by Sayers and Partners for the Environment Agency based on Sayers P, Gersonius B, Leijstra M, Ozerol, G, Nurgah E (2020) Cloud-to-Coast Adaptation: Enabling a climate resilient future. Concept note. Published as part of the Interreg C5a WP3 Sayers PB., Carr S., Moss C. and Didcock A. (2020) Flood disadvantage - Social vulnerable and ethnic minorities. Research undertaken by Sayers and Partners for Flood Re. Published by Sayers and Partners (SPL), London. Vonk, B., Klerk, W.J., Fröhle, P., Gersonius, B., den Heijer, F., Jordan, P., Radu Ciocan, U., Rijke, J., Sayers, P. and Ashley, R., 2020. Adaptive Asset Management for Flood Protection: The FAIR Framework in Action. Journal of Infrastructures 2020, 5(12), 109; https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures5120109 Gersonius, B., Vonk, B., Ashley, R.M., den Heijer, F., Klerk, W.J., Manojlovic, N., Rijke, J., Sayers, P. and Pathirana, A., 2020. Maturity Improvements in Flood Protection Asset Management across the North Sea Region. Journal of Infrastructures, 5(12), p.112. Sayers, PB., Horritt, M, Carr, S, Kay, A, and Mauz, J (2020) Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3): Future flood risk. Research undertaken by Sayers and Partners for the Committee on Climate Change (using the Future Flood Explorer). Published by Sayers and Partners and the Committee on Climate Change, London. Westcott, M., Ward, J., Surminski, S, Sayers, P., Bresch, D. and Clare, B., (2020). Be prepared–exploring future climate-related risk for residential and commercial real-estate portfolios. The Journal of Alternative Investments Summer 2020, jai.2020.1.100; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/jai.2020.1.100 Haigh, I.D., Nicholls, R.J., Penning Roswell, E. and Sayers, P. (2020) Impacts of climate change on coastal flooding, relevant to the coastal and marine environment around the UK. MCCIP Science Review 2020, 546–565. FAIR consortium (2020). FAIR: End Report Adaptive asset management for flood protection. A consortium report with the following lead contributions Remco Schrijver and Bart Vonk, Project Lead, Asset Investment Planning and Asset Management: Paul Sayers; Adaptive Design and Mainstreaming: Ulf Radu Ciocan and Research and Capacity Building Facility: Berry Gersonius plus many other pilot and practitioner contributions. Sayers, PB, Barlow, J and Vonk, B (2020). Adapting infrastructure assets in practice: Facing up to the challenges. Findings of a workshop convened by the Environment Agency, Rijkwaterstaat and Sayers and Partners. 2019 Huo Li, Street, R Sayers, P et al (2019) Adapting to Climate Change in China: Final Project Report Phase II. Funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). Leonardo Garrido, Medrilzam, Anna Amalia, Irfan Darliazi Yananto, Molly McGregor, Jessica Brand, Sarah Opitz Stapleton, Paul Sayers, Rebecca Nadin, Adriana Quevedo. Low Carbon Development: A Paradigm Shift Towards a Green Economy in Indonesia - Full report. Summary for Policy Makers. FAIR (2019). A perspective on the future of asset management for flood protection A Policy Brief from the Interreg North Sea Region FAIR project. Sayers, P von B, Radu Cican, U; Gersonius, B plus other members of the FAIR consortium CISL (2019). Physical risk framework: Understanding the impacts of climate change on real estate lending and investment portfolios. A report for CISL Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership by Vivid Economics and Sayers and Partners - Westcott,M Sayers,PB Ward J and Surminski, S 2018 ASC (2018). Managing the coast in a changing-climate. A report by the ASC, Jacobs and Sayers Sayers PB (2018) Managing future coastal flood and erosion - Supporting analysis risk. Research undertaken by Sayers and Partners on behalf of the Committee on Climate Change. Published by Committee on Climate Change, London Sayers P.B, Brisley R, Wingfield S, Warren S, Mattingley, P, Robinson, P. Horritt, M and Lamb, R (2018) A national analytics toolset to support an exploration of alternative investments in flood risk management infrastructure, A report for the National Infrastructure Commission by JBA and Sayers and Partners. Sayers PB and Smith A (2018). Can Africa take the lead on Sustainable Water Infrastructure? Report prepared for the African Development Bank 2017 Sayers, P., Penning-Rowsell, E., Horritt, M. (2017). Flood vulnerability, risk and social disadvantage: Current and future patterns in the UK. Journal of Regional Environmental Change. DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1252-z Sayers, PB (2017). Resilience: rising to the challenge in coastal regions. Published in July to September issue of Resilience Scan, a quarterly publication from the ODI and the Rockefeller Foundation. Sayers, PB. (2017). 'Evolution of Strategic Flood Risk Management in Support of Social Justice, Ecosystem Health, and Resilience'. Published by Oxford Research Encyclopedia:Natural Hazard Science. DOI:10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.85 Sayers, P.B., Horritt, M., Penning Rowsell, E., and Fieth, J (2017). Present and future flood vulnerability, risk and disadvantage: A UK assessment. A report for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation published by Sayers and Partners LLP. Sayers, P.B., Yuanyuan, L., Moncrieff, C., Jianqiang, L., Tickner, D., Gang, L. and Speed, R., (2017). Strategic drought risk management: eight ‘golden rules’ to guide a sound approach. International Journal of River Basin Management, pp.1-17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2017.1280812 Stripling, S; Panzeri, M; Blanco, B; Rossington, K; Sayers, P; Borthwick, A, (2017). Regional-scale probabilistic shoreline evolution modelling for flood-risk assessment. Coastal Engineering 121: 129-144. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.12.002 Ogunyoye, F, Sayers PB, Tarrant, O et al (2017). Accounting for residual uncertainty: an update to the fluvial freeboard guide. A research report published by the Environment Agency. 2016 Sayers , PB and Horritt M (2016). Towards a flood resilient Eden Catchment, Cumbria. Winning submission to the Defra national modelling competition. Robert A. Speed, Yuanyuan Li, David Tickner, Huojian Huang, Robert J. Naiman, Jianting Cao, Gang Lei, Lili Yu, Paul Sayers, Zhongnan Zhao & Yu Wei (2016) A framework for strategic river restoration in China, Water International, 41:7, 998-1015, DOI: 10.1080/02508060.2016.1247311 Sayers et al (2016) Believe it or not? The challenge of validating large scale probabilistic risk models. Proceedings of Floodrisk2016 Paul Sayers, Rob Lamb, Mike Panzeri, Hayley Bowman, Jim Hall, Matt Horritt and Edmund Penning-Rowsell E3S Web Conf., 7 (2016) 11004 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160711004 Sayers et al (2016). The analysis of future flood risk in the UK using the Future Flood Explorer (FFE). Proceedings of Floodrisk2016. Paul Sayers, Matt Horritt, Edmund Penning-Rowsell, Andrew McKenzie and David Thompson. E3S Web Conf., 7 (2016) 21005 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160721005 Sayers, P (2016). We should not be surprised. Article written in the aftermath of the floods and published in the Public Sector Executive 2015 Sayers, P (2015) Communicating the chance of a flood: The use and abuse of probability, frequency and return period. FORUM Project publication, University of Oxford Sayers, P.B., Horritt, M. S., Penning-Rowsell, E., and Mckenzie, A. (2015). Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017: Projections of future flood risk in the UK. Pages 125. Sayers and Partners LLP report for the Committee on Climate Change. Brisley, R., Wylde, R., Lamb, R., Cooper, J., Sayers, P. and Hall, J. (2015) Techniques for valuing adaptive capacity in flood risk management. Proceedings of the ICE - Water Management. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1680/jwama.14.00070 Sayers, P., Walsh, C. and Dawson, R. (2015) Climate impacts on flood and coastal erosion infrastructure. Published by Institution of Civil Engineers, London. Journal of Infrastructure Asset Management. DOI: 10.1680/iasma.14.00040 Williamson, P, Ogunyoye, F, Dennis,I, Douglas, J, Hardwick, M, Sayers, P, Fisher, K, Thorne, C, Holmes N (2015). Channel Management Handbook. An Environment Agency research report. ISBN: 978-1-84911-354-0 2014 Penning-Rowsell, E., Sayers, P.B. and Watkinson, A. (2014) Innovation: Managing Risk, Not Avoiding It. Evidence and Case Studies: High level case study: Flooding. In, Contribution to the Annual Report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser 2014. by Government Office for Science, UK. Sayers P B, Galloway Gerry, Penning-Rowsell Edmund, Shen F, Wen K, Chen Y, Le Quesne T (2014). Strategic flood management: ten ‘golden rules’ to guide a sound approach. Journal: International Journal of River Basin Management. DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2014.902378 Ferguson, S and Sayers P B (2014). Ibadan Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment – Final Report (final draft). A report by Ambiental and Sayers and Partners for the World Bank Sayers P. B., Nathan R., Rodda, H., Tomlinson, E., Gippel C, Little, M and Bowles, D (2014). Comparison of Flood Hazard Estimation Methods for Dam Safety. Published by CEATI international, Montreal, Canada. 2013 Sayers P B, Galloway Gerry, Penning-Rowsell Edmund, Shen F, Wen K, Chen Y, Le Quesne T (2013). Flood Risk Management : A strategic approach. Published in English by UNESCO, Paris in May 2013 (ISBN 978-92-3-001159-8) and in Chinese by Water Publishing in October 2012 (ISBN:978-7-5170-0201-7). Published in asscoiation with WWF, the General Institute of Water Design and Planning, Beijing (GIWP) China and Asian Development Bank (ADB). Wallis M, Bowles, D, Brown, A, Hughes, A, Morris, M, Sayers, P, Topple, A (2013). Guide to risk assessment for reservoir safety management. A research report for the Environment Agency. Report – SC090001/R1 X. Jiabi, P. Sayers, S. Dongya and Z. Hanghui (2013) Broad-scale reliability analysis of the flood defence infrastructure within the Taihu Basin, China. Article first published online: 1 FEB 2013 | DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12034. Published by the Journal of flood risk management. 2012 Wallis, M.and Topple, A. and Morris, M.W. and Brown, A. and Bowles, D. and Gosden, J. and Hughes, A. and Sayers, P.B. and Gardiner, K. (2012) Reservoir safety risk assessment - a new guide.In: British Dam Society Annual Conference, 12-15 September 2012, Leeds. (2012) Ramsbottom, D., Sayers, P. and Panzeri, M. (2012). Climate change risk assessment for the floods and coastal erosion sector. UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Defra, London. The full set of CCRA sector reports can be found here Sayers, P., Galloway, G.,& Hall, J. (2012). Robust decision making under uncertainty - Towards adaptive and resilient flood risk management infrastructure. London: Thomas Telford (link to publishers website) Sayers, P., Korternhaus, A., & Flickweert, J. (2012). Supporting Flood Risk Management Through Better Infrastructure Design And Management. In P. Sayers, Flood risk management - The design and management of supporting infrastructure. Thomas Telford. Tarrant, O., & Sayers, P. (2012). Managing flood risk in the Thames Estuary - The development of a long term robust and flexible strategy. In P. Sayers, Flood risk management - The design and management of supporting infrastructure. Thomas Telford. 2011 Sayers, P.B.and Tarrant, O. and Brew, D. and Wallis, M. and Walkden, M.J.A. (2011) A framework for coastal and erosion risk management science. In: ICE Coastal Management Conference, 15-16 November 2011, Belfast, UK (Full science report - here) 2010 Sayers PB, Wallis M, Simm JD, Baxter G and Andryszewski (2010) Towards the Next Generation of Risk-Based Asset Management Tools. Editors Pender and Flaukner. Wiley Publications Samuels, P., Morris, M., Sayers, P., Creutin, J., Kortenhaus, A., Klijn, K., et al. (2010). A Framework For Integrated Flood Risk Management. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydraulic Research, IAHR, European Congress, Edinburgh, May 2010. C. Mc Gahey, P. Sayers, M. Wills, J. Lanyon, A. Weisgerber, S. Surendran, A. Baylis, T. Linford (2010). Modelling and Decision Support Framework 2 (MDSF2) - Initial Applications and Lessons Proc. Of the FCM10 Conference. Environment Agency Gouldby B, Sayers PB, Panzeri MC, Lanyon J (2010) Development of application of efficient methods for the forward propagation of epistemic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis within complex broad-scale flood risk system models. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering; Mar2010, Vol. 37 Issue 3, p496. Special Issue on Hydrotechnical Engineering. Sayers P.B and Roca M (2010). Relating asset conditions to flood risk - Development of supporting tools and techniques. RAFT - Risk Asset Field Tool. HR Wallingford Report TR19 for the Environment Agency. 2009 Sayers, P.B., Roca, M, Bramley, M, Gouldby G, Hurford A,, Flikweert, J, Simm J, Wallis, M (2009 ).PAMS (Performance-based Asset Management System) – Phase 2 Outcome Summary Report. Report for the Environment Agency McGahey C and Sayers PB (2009). Modelling and decision support framework - final system design report, Prepared by HR Wallingford (C Mc Gahey & P Sayers) for the Environment Agency, R&D Project SC05001, April, 199 pages. Roca, M.and Sayers, P.B. and Bast, H. and Barlow, J. and Hensman, L. (2009). Conveyance and sediment management. Is it worth it? In: 44th Defra Flood and Coastal Management Conference, 30th June - 2nd July 2009, Telford, UK . 2008 Kellagher, R., Sayers, P. and Counsell, C., 2008, August. Developing a risk-based approach to urban flood analysis. In Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Edinburgh, UK (Vol. 31). de Bruijn, K, Klijn, F, McGahey, C, Mens, M, Wolfert, H, Luther, J, Mostert, E, Sayers, P, Schanze, J (2008). Long-term strategies for flood risk management: scenario definition and strategic alternative design. TAsk 14 Report from Floodsite EU funded Research Programme van Gelder, P.and Buijs, F. and Horst, W. and Kanning, W. and Mai Van, C. and Rajabalinejad, M. and de Boer, E. and Gupta, S. and Shams, R. and van Erp, N. and Gouldby, B.P. and Kingston, G. and Sayers, P.B. and Willis, M. and Kortenhaus, A. and Lambrecht, H.J. (2008). Reliability analysis of flood defence structures and systems in Europe. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. Buijs, F.and Sayers, P.B. and Hall, J.H. and van Gelder, P. (2008). Time-dependent reliability analysis of anchored sheet pile walls. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. Mitchell, C.and Tarrant, O. and Denness, D. and Sayers, P.B. and Simm, J.D. and Bramley, M.E. (2008). Embedding new science into practice – lessons from the development and application of a Performance-based Asset Management System. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. Phillips, T.and Hall, J.H. and Dawson, R.J. and Barr, S. and Ford, A. and Batty, M. and Dagoumas, A. and Sayers, P.B. (2008) Strategic appraisal of flood risk management options over extended timescales: combining scenario analysis with optimization. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. (2008) Simm, J.D.and Gouldby, B.P. and Sayers, P.B. and Flikweert, J. and Wersching, S. and Bramley, M.E.(2008). Representing fragility of flood and coastal defences: Getting into the detail. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. (2008) B Gouldby, P Sayers, O Tarrant (2008) Application of a flood risk model to the Thames Estuary for economic benefit assessment Risk Analysis VI: Simulation and Hazard Mitigation/ Fewtrell, T.J.and Bates, P.D. and de Wit, A. and Asselman, N. and Sayers, P.B. (2008). Comparison of varying complexity numerical models for the prediction of flood inundation in Greenwich, UK. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. Gouldby BP, Sayers PB, Mulet-Marti J, Hassan M, Benwell D (2008) A Methodology for Regional Scale Flood Risk Assessment Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Water Engineering, June 2008 McGahey, C.and Sayers, P.B (2008) Long term planning – robust strategic decision making in the face of gross uncertainty. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. (2008) Lhomme, J.and Sayers, PB. and Gouldby, B.P. and Samuels, P.G. and Wills, M. and Mulet-Marti, J (2008).. Recent development and application of a rapid flood spreading method. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. (2008) Pullen, T.A.and Saulter, A. and Hawkes, P.J. and Sayers, P.B. and Tozer, N.P. and Flowerdew, J. and Horsburgh, K. (2008). Use of field measurements to improve probabilistic wave overtopping forecasts. In: ICCE 2008 (31st International Conference on Coastal Engineering), 31 Aug - 5 Sept 2008, Hamburg, Germany. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814277426_0250 2007 Sayers, P.B., Hall, J.W., Panzeri, M. and Deakin, R. (2007) Chapter 25: Quantified analysis of future flood risk management portfolios in England and Wales. In, Thorne, C.R., Evans, E.P. and Penning-Rowsell, E.C. (eds.) Future Flood and Coastal Erosion Risks. Thomas Telford, London. pp. 433-458. Krupka, M., Pender, G., Wallis, S., Sayers, PB., & Mulet-Marti, J. (2007, July). A rapid flood inundation model. In Proceedings Of The Congress-International Association For Hydraulic Research (Vol. 32, No. 1,p. 28). Townend, I.H.and Elliott, C. and Sayers, P.B. (2007). Controlled dissemination and uptake of research. In: 42nd Defra Flood and Coastal Management Conference, 3-5 July 2007, York, UK. 2006 Sayers, P.B and Marti, (2006) RFSM - Rapid Flood Spreading Method - Initial Development. Developed as part of Floodsite and TE2100 by Marti and Sayers, HR Wallingford report for the Environment Agency. Hall JW; Sayers PB; Walkden MJA; Panzeri M (2006). Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 2006, 364(1841), 1027-1049 Sayers, P.B.and Tarrant, O. and Gouldby, B.P. and Kavanagh, David and Panzeri, M. (2006). Thames estuary - Establishing a robust flood system model to support engineering investment decisions.In: 41st Defra Flood and Coastal Management Conference, 4- 6 July 2006, University of York, UK. Hall JW; Dawson RJ; Manning LJ; Walkden MJA; Dickson ME; Sayers PB (2006). Managing changing risks to infrastructure systems.. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Civil Engineering 2006, 159 (Special Issue 2), 21-27. Sayers, P.B.and Simm, J.D. and Wallis, M. and Buijs, F. and Flikweert, J. and Hamer, B.(2006). Developing a performance - based management system for flood and coastal defence assets. In: 41st Defra Flood and Coastal Management Conference, 4- 6 July 2006, University of York, UK. E. Evans, J. Hall, E. Penning-Rowsell, P. Sayers, C. Thorne, and A. Watkinson (2006). Future flood risk management in the UK. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Management 2006 159:1, 53-61 2005 Sayers PB and Meadowcroft IC (2005). RASP - A hierarchy of risk-based methods and their application. Proceedings of the 40th Defra Conf. of River and Coastal Management. Dawson, R., Hall, J., Sayers, P., Bates, P. and Rosu, C., 2005. Sampling-based flood risk analysis for fluvial dike systems. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 19(6), pp.388-402. Buijs F, Sayers PB, Simm J, Wallis M (2005). Performance & Reliability of Flood & Coastal Defence Structures TR1 and TR2. A report for the Environment Agency. Sayers PB and Meadowcroft IC (2005). Strategic approaches to coastal management. Die Kuste. Proceedings of Special Edition - ComRisk - common Strategies to reduce the risk of storm floods in coastal lowlands Kiel Germany, 2005. ISBN 3-8042-1061-9. Sayers P, Wallis, M, Hall, J, Walkdon M (2005). Overstrand to Walcott Strategy Study: Strategy Plan - Main Report. A HR Wallingford publication (EX 4692) for North Norfolk Council (Peter Frew) 2004 Sayers, Hall, Meadowcroft, Rosu, Dawson, Chatterton, Deakin (2004) RASP - Risk Assessment for Strategic Planning - Technical summary Report. A Report for the Environment Agency Sayers, Hall, Meadowcroft, Rosu, Dawson, Chatterton, Deakin (2004) RASP - Risk Assessment for Strategic Planning - Intermediate Level Method Coastal Case Main Text. A Report for the Environment Agency Sayers, Hall, Meadowcroft, Rosu, Dawson, Chatterton, Deakin (2004) RASP - Risk Assessment for Strategic Planning - Intermediate Level Method Fluvial Case Main Text. A Report for the Environment Agency Buijs, F, Sayers P, Hall J (2004). 2004 RASP Supporting reports - Detailed Level Methods - PC Ring. A Report for the Environment Agency Sayers PB, Hawkes P, Tozer, N (2004). Best Practice in Coastal Flood Forecasting. A report prepared by HR Wallingford for the Environment Agency. Associated Conference Paper Hawkes, Sayers and Khatibi (2004) is here Sayers P, Simm, J and Ogunyoye (2004). Establishing a performance-based asset management system for flood defences (PAMS). Conference paper - Defra 2004 Sayers, P Simm J, Ohl C, Ogunyoye F, Oldfield, S (2004) .Performance-based Asset Management System (PAMS) – Phase 1 Scoping Study Technical Report. A report by HR Wallingford for the Environment Agency. Evans, E.P., Ashley, R., Hall, J.W., Penning-Rowsell, E.P., Saul, A., Sayers, PB., Thorne, C.R. and Watkinson, A. (2004b). Foresight Future Flooding, Scientific Summary: Volume 2: Managing future risks. Office of Science and Technology, London. Evans, E.P., Ashley, R., Hall, J.W., Penning-Rowsell, E.P., Saul, A., Sayers, PB., Thorne, C.R. and Watkinson, A. (2004a). Foresight Future Flooding, Scientific Summary: Volume 1: Future risks and their drivers. Office of Science and Technology, London. 2003 Buijs, F.and van Gelder, P. and Vrijling, J. and Vrouwenvelder, A. and Hall, J. and Sayers, P.B. and Wehrung, M. (2003). Application of Dutch reliability-based flood defence design in the UK. In: Safety and Reliability. Swets & Zeitlinger (Taylor and Francis), pp. 311-319. ISBN 90 5809 551 7 (2003) Dawson R, Sayers PB, Hall JW, Bates P (2003). Flood risk assessment for Shoreline Management Planning. Proceeding of the ICE International Conference on Coastal Management, Brighton, UK 2003 Ohl, C, Frew, P, .Sayers,P.B Watson, G, Lawton, J, Farrow, J, Walkden M, and Hall J (2003).. North Norfolk - a regional approach to coastal erosion management and sustainability in practice.International Conference on Coastal Management 2003. January 2003, 226-240 Hall JW; Meadowcroft IC; Sayers PB; Bramley ME (2003).Integrated flood risk management in England and Wales. Natural Hazards Review 2003, 4(3), 126-135. Hall JW; Evans EP; Penning-Rowsell EC; Sayers PB; Thorne CR; Saul AJ (2003). Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100. Environmental Hazards 2003, 5(3-4), 51-65. Hall JW; Dawson RJ; Sayers P; Rosu C; Chatterton J; Deakin R (2003). A methodology for national-scale flood risk assessment. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water & Maritime Engineering 2003, 156(3), 235-247. Robert Carr Prize 2002 Sayers PB, Meadowcroft IC, Hall, JW, Gouldby BP, Simm J (2002). Risk, performance and uncertainty in flood and coastal management - A review. A report for the Environment Agency by HR Wallingford. Also summarised in Meadowcroft IC, Sayers PB, Hall JW. (2002) paper of the same title presented at the Annual Conference of River and Coastal Engineers, University of Keele, June 2002. Sayers PB; Hall JW; Meadowcroft IC (2002). Towards risk-based flood hazard management in the UK. Civil Engineering 2002, 150(5), 36-42. Sayers P, Ohl,C, Rosu,C, Panzeri, M, Kemp, J, Deakin, R, Neve, P, Bodilly, A, Hall, J and Dr John Chatterton. National Flood Risk Assessment 2002, HR Wallingford Report No. EX 4722 for Defra. 2001 Sayers PB, Motyka G, Mockett, I, Brooke J (2001) Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy Plan. A report by HR Wallingford for Environment Agency and Shepway District Council. (Laying the foundations for the development of fragility curves, system analysis, RASP and NaFRA) Sayers PB, Meadowcroft IC, Moody, A, Gouldby B, Crossman, M (2001). Integrating reliable flood modelling with probabilistic analysis in practice. Proceedings of the MAFF River and Coastal Engineering Conference, UK Deakin R, Burgess, K, Samuels P, Sayers PB and Chatterton J (2001). National Assets at Risk Under Climate Change. Proceedings of the MAFF River and Coastal Engineering Conference, UK 2000 Besley, P and Sayers PB (2000). West Bay Coastal Defence and Harbour Improvement Scheme - Physical Model Test. A report for West Dorset district council by HR Wallingford. Sayers and Mockett (2000). West Bay Coastal Defence and Harbour Improvement Scheme - East Beach Management Plan. A report for West Dorset district council by HR Wallingford. Schrimpf, W, Sayers PB, Millard, K (2000). DESIMA - Decision Support system for integrated coastal zone MAnagement. Research for the Joint Reserach Centre, Ispra. Sayers, P, Millard, K and Leggett D (2000) Maximising the use and exchange of coastal data: A guide to best practice. Coastal management: integrating science, engineering and management. January 2000, 107-116 Burgess K, Samuels PG, Chatterton JB, Penning-Rowsell ED, Sayers PB, and Deakin R. Assessment of economic value of national assets at risk from flooding and coastal erosion. In Ann. Conf. River and Coastal Engineering 2000 July. Based on report published 1998 1999 Pan, S, McDonald N, Sayers P et al (1999). Modelling the hydrodynamics of an L-shaped breakwater. Proceeding of the Coastal Engineering 1999, Lemnos Greece. DOI: 10.2495/CE990241 Sayers, P and Pyne (1999). A tidal sill at West Bay - Feasibility study. A report for West Dorset district council by HR Wallingford. 1998 Sayers PB, Allsop, W and Hill A (1998). Alderney Breakwater - Scheme evolution. Proceedings of the international conference of coastal engineering, 1998. 1997 Coates, Motyka, Carpenter, Powell and Sayers (1997). East Solent Shoreline Management Plan. HR Wallingford. |