Publications - Books
Drought Risk Management: A strategic approach (2016). Sayers, P.B., Li Yuanyuan, Moncrieff, C, Li Jianqiang, Tickner, D., Xu Xiangyu, Speed, R., Li Aihua, Lei Gang, Qiu Bing, Wei Yu and Pegram G. (2016). Published in 2016 by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization 7, place de Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07SP, France © UNESCO 2016 ISBN 978-92-3-1000942
Flood Risk Management: A strategic approach (2013). P. Sayers, Y. Li, G. Galloway, E. Penning-Rowsell, F. Shen, K. Wen, Y. Chen, and T. Le Quesne. Published in 2013 by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization 7, place de Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07SP, France © UNESCO 2013 in association with Asian Development Bank, WWF-International and the GIWP, China. ISBN 978-92-3-001159-8.
Flood Risk: Design, Management and Planning of Flood Defence Infrastructure (2012). Edited by Paul B Sayers. Publihsed by Thomas Telford for the Insitute of Civil Engineers (ICE). doi:10.1680/fr.41561
Handbook of flood risk science and management. (2010) Editors Pender et al. Published by Wiley on behalf of CIWEM, London. ISBN: 978-1-4051-8657-5.
Foresight Future Flooding. (2007) Editor Thorne, C.R., Evans, E.P. and Penning-Rowsell, . Published by Thomas Telford for the Institute of Civil Engineers (ICE). ISBN: 978-0-7277-3449-5
Maximising the use and exchange of coastal data (2000). Millard and Sayers. CIRIA, London, ISBN: 978-0-86017-541-4
Risk management for UK reservoirs (Hughes et al). CIRIA, UK
Publications - selected papers
Sayers and Partners seek to publish their research as widely as possible. Some selected publications are below.
Haigh, I.D., Nicholls, R.J., Penning Roswell, E. and Sayers, P. (2020) Impacts of climate change on coastal flooding, relevant to the coastal and marine environment around the UK. MCCIP Science Review 2020, 546–565.
Huo Li, Street, R Sayers,P et al (2019) Adapting to Climate Change in China: Final Project Report Phase II. Funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC).
Leonardo Garrido, Medrilzam, Anna Amalia, Irfan Darliazi Yananto, Molly McGregor, Jessica Brand, Sarah Opitz Stapleton, Paul Sayers, Rebecca Nadin, Adriana Quevedo. Low Carbon Development: A Paradigm Shift Towards a Green Economy in Indonesia - Full report. Summary for Policy Makers.
FAIR (2019). A perspective on the future of asset management for flood protection A Policy Brief from the Interreg North Sea Region FAIR project. Sayers, P von B, Radu Cican, U; Gersonius, B plus other members of the FAIR consortium
CISL (2019). Physical risk framework: Understanding the impacts of climate change on real estate lending and investment portfolios. A report for CISL Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership by Vivid Economics and Sayers and Partners - Westcott,M Sayers,PB Ward J and Surminski, S
ASC (2018). Managing the coast in a changing-climate. A report by the ASC, Jacobs and Sayers
Sayers PB (2018) Managing future coastal flood and erosion - Supporting analysis risk. Research undertaken by Sayers and Partners on behalf of the Committee on Climate Change. Published by Committee on Climate Change, London
Sayers P.B, Brisley R, Wingfield S, Warren S, Mattingley, P, Robinson, P. Horritt, M and Lamb, R.A national analytics toolset to support an exploration of alternative investments in flood risk management infrastructure, A report for the National Infrastructure Commission by JBA and Sayers and Partners.
Sayers PB and Smith A (2018). Can Africa take the lead on Sustainable Water Infrastructure? Report prepared for the African Development Bank
Sayers, P., Penning-Rowsell, E., Horritt, M. (2017). Flood vulnerability, risk and social disadvantage: Current and future patterns in the UK. Journal of Regional Environmental Change. DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1252-z
Sayers, PB (2017). Resilience: rising to the challenge in coastal regions. Published in July to September issue of Resilience Scan, a quarterly publication from the ODI and the Rockefeller Foundation.
Sayers, PB. (2017). 'Evolution of Strategic Flood Risk Management in Support of Social Justice, Ecosystem Health, and Resilience'. Published by Oxford Research Encyclopedia:Natural Hazard Science. DOI:10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.85
Sayers, P.B., Horritt, M., Penning Rowsell, E., and Fieth, J (2017). Present and future flood vulnerability, risk and disadvantage: A UK assessment. A report for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation published by Sayers and Partners LLP.
Sayers, P.B., Yuanyuan, L., Moncrieff, C., Jianqiang, L., Tickner, D., Gang, L. and Speed, R., (2017). Strategic drought risk management: eight ‘golden rules’ to guide a sound approach. International Journal of River Basin Management, pp.1-17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2017.1280812
Stripling, S; Panzeri, M; Blanco, B; Rossington, K; Sayers, P; Borthwick, A, (2017). Regional-scale probabilistic shoreline evolution modelling for flood-risk assessment. Coastal Engineering 121: 129-144. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.12.002
Ogunyoye, F, Sayers PB, Tarrant, O et al (2017). Accounting for residual uncertainty: an update to the fluvial freeboard guide. A research report published by the Environment Agency.
Sayers , PB and Horritt M (2016). Towards a flood resilient Eden Catchment, Cumbria. Winning submission to the Defra national modelling competition.
Robert A. Speed, Yuanyuan Li, David Tickner, Huojian Huang, Robert J. Naiman, Jianting Cao, Gang Lei, Lili Yu, Paul Sayers, Zhongnan Zhao & Yu Wei (2016) A framework for strategic river restoration in China, Water International, 41:7, 998-1015, DOI: 10.1080/02508060.2016.1247311
Sayers et al (2016) Believe it or not? The challenge of validating large scale probabilistic risk models. Proceedings of Floodrisk2016
Paul Sayers, Rob Lamb, Mike Panzeri, Hayley Bowman, Jim Hall, Matt Horritt and Edmund Penning-Rowsell
E3S Web Conf., 7 (2016) 11004 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160711004
Sayers et al (2016). The analysis of future flood risk in the UK using the Future Flood Explorer (FFE). Proceedings of Floodrisk2016.
Paul Sayers, Matt Horritt, Edmund Penning-Rowsell, Andrew McKenzie and David Thompson. E3S Web Conf., 7 (2016) 21005
Sayers, P (2015) Communicating the chance of a flood: The use and abuse of probability, frequency and return period. FORUM Project publication, University of Oxford
Sayers, P.B., Horritt, M. S., Penning-Rowsell, E., and Mckenzie, A. (2015). Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017: Projections of future flood risk in the UK. Pages 125. Sayers and Partners LLP report for the Committee on Climate Change.
Brisley, R., Wylde, R., Lamb, R., Cooper, J., Sayers, P. and Hall, J. (2015) Techniques for valuing adaptive capacity in flood risk management. Proceedings of the ICE - Water Management. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1680/jwama.14.00070
Sayers, P., Walsh, C. and Dawson, R. (2015) Climate impacts on flood and coastal erosion infrastructure. Published by Institution of Civil Engineers, London. Journal of Infrastructure Asset Management. DOI: 10.1680/iasma.14.00040
Penning-Rowsell, E., Sayers, P.B. and Watkinson, A. (2014) Innovation: Managing Risk, Not Avoiding It. Evidence and Case Studies: High level case study: Flooding. In, Contribution to the Annual Report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser 2014. by Government Office for Science, UK.
Sayers P B, Galloway Gerry, Penning-Rowsell Edmund, Shen F, Wen K, Chen Y, Le Quesne T (2014). Strategic flood management: ten ‘golden rules’ to guide a sound approach. Journal: International Journal of River Basin Management. DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2014.902378
Sayers P. B., Nathan R., Rodda, H., Tomlinson, E., Gippel C, Little, M and Bowles, D (2014). Comparison of Flood Hazard Estimation Methods for Dam Safety. Published by CEATI international, Montreal, Canada.
Sayers P B, Galloway Gerry, Penning-Rowsell Edmund, Shen F, Wen K, Chen Y, Le Quesne T (2013). Flood Risk Management : A strategic approach. Published in English by UNESCO, Paris in May 2013 (ISBN 978-92-3-001159-8) and in Chinese by Water Publishing in October 2012 (ISBN:978-7-5170-0201-7). Published in asscoiation with WWF, the General Institute of Water Design and Planning, Beijing (GIWP) China and Asian Development Bank (ADB).
Wallis M, Bowles, D, Brown, A, Hughes, A, Morris, M, Sayers, P, Topple, A (2013). Guide to risk assessment for reservoir safety management. A research report for the Environment Agency. Report – SC090001/R1
X. Jiabi, P. Sayers, S. Dongya and Z. Hanghui (2013) Broad-scale reliability analysis of the flood defence infrastructure within the Taihu Basin, China. Article first published online: 1 FEB 2013 | DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12034. Published by the Journal of flood risk management.
Wallis, M.and Topple, A. and Morris, M.W. and Brown, A. and Bowles, D. and Gosden, J. and Hughes, A. and Sayers, P.B. and Gardiner, K. (2012) Reservoir safety risk assessment - a new guide.In: British Dam Society Annual Conference, 12-15 September 2012, Leeds. (2012)
Ramsbottom, D., Sayers, P. and Panzeri, M. (2012). Climate change risk assessment for the floods and coastal erosion sector. UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Defra, London. The full set of CCRA sector reports can be found here
Sayers, P., Galloway, G.,& Hall, J. (2012). Robust decision making under uncertainty - Towards adaptive and resilient flood risk
management infrastructure. London: Thomas Telford (link to publishers website)
Sayers, P., Korternhaus, A., & Flickweert, J. (2012). Supporting Flood Risk Management Through Better Infrastructure Design And Management. In P. Sayers, Flood risk management - The design and management of supporting infrastructure. Thomas Telford.
Tarrant, O., & Sayers, P. (2012). Managing flood risk in the Thames Estuary - The development of a long term robust and flexible
strategy. In P. Sayers, Flood risk management - The design and management of supporting infrastructure. Thomas Telford.
Sayers, P.B.and Tarrant, O. and Brew, D. and Wallis, M. and Walkden, M.J.A. (2011) A framework for coastal and erosion risk management science. In: ICE Coastal Management Conference, 15-16 November 2011, Belfast, UK (Full science report - here)
Sayers PB, Wallis M, Simm JD, Baxter G and Andryszewski (2010) Towards the Next Generation of Risk-Based Asset Management Tools. Editors Pender and Flaukner. Wiley Publications
Samuels, P., Morris, M., Sayers, P., Creutin, J., Kortenhaus, A., Klijn, K., et al. (2010). A Framework For Integrated Flood Risk Management. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydraulic Research, IAHR, European Congress, Edinburgh, May 2010.
C. Mc Gahey, P. Sayers, M. Wills, J. Lanyon, A. Weisgerber, S. Surendran, A. Baylis, T. Linford (2010). Modelling and Decision Support Framework 2 (MDSF2) - Initial Applications and Lessons Proc. Of the FCM10 Conference. Environment Agency
Gouldby B, Sayers PB, Panzeri MC, Lanyon J (2010) Development of application of efficient methods for the forward propagation of epistemic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis within complex broad-scale flood risk system models. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering; Mar2010, Vol. 37 Issue 3, p496. Special Issue on Hydrotechnical Engineering.
McGahey C and Sayers PB (2009). Modelling and decision support framework - final system design report, Prepared by HR Wallingford (C Mc Gahey & P Sayers) for the Environment Agency, R&D Project SC05001, April, 199 pages.
Roca, M.and Sayers, P.B. and Bast, H. and Barlow, J. and Hensman, L. (2009). Conveyance and sediment management. Is it worth it?
In: 44th Defra Flood and Coastal Management Conference, 30th June - 2nd July 2009, Telford, UK .
Kellagher, R., Sayers, P. and Counsell, C., 2008, August. Developing a risk-based approach to urban flood analysis. In Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Edinburgh, UK (Vol. 31).
de Bruijn, K, Klijn, F, McGahey, C, Mens, M, Wolfert, H, Luther, J, Mostert, E, Sayers, P, Schanze, J (2008). Long-term strategies for flood risk management: scenario definition and strategic alternative design. TAsk 14 Report from Floodsite EU funded Research Programme
van Gelder, P.and Buijs, F. and Horst, W. and Kanning, W. and Mai Van, C. and Rajabalinejad, M. and de Boer, E. and Gupta, S. and Shams, R. and van Erp, N. and Gouldby, B.P. and Kingston, G. and Sayers, P.B. and Willis, M. and Kortenhaus, A. and Lambrecht, H.J. (2008). Reliability analysis of flood defence structures and systems in Europe. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK.
Buijs, F.and Sayers, P.B. and Hall, J.H. and van Gelder, P. (2008). Time-dependent reliability analysis of anchored sheet pile walls.
In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK.
Mitchell, C.and Tarrant, O. and Denness, D. and Sayers, P.B. and Simm, J.D. and Bramley, M.E. (2008). Embedding new science into practice – lessons from the development and application of a Performance-based Asset Management System. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK.
Phillips, T.and Hall, J.H. and Dawson, R.J. and Barr, S. and Ford, A. and Batty, M. and Dagoumas, A. and Sayers, P.B. (2008) Strategic appraisal of flood risk management options over extended timescales: combining scenario analysis with optimization. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. (2008)
Simm, J.D.and Gouldby, B.P. and Sayers, P.B. and Flikweert, J. and Wersching, S. and Bramley, M.E.(2008). Representing fragility of flood and coastal defences: Getting into the detail. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. (2008)
B Gouldby, P Sayers, O Tarrant (2008) Application of a flood risk model to the Thames Estuary for economic benefit assessment
Risk Analysis VI: Simulation and Hazard Mitigation/
Fewtrell, T.J.and Bates, P.D. and de Wit, A. and Asselman, N. and Sayers, P.B. (2008). Comparison of varying complexity numerical models for the prediction of flood inundation in Greenwich, UK. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK.
Gouldby BP, Sayers PB, Mulet-Marti J, Hassan M, Benwell D (2008) A Methodology for Regional Scale Flood Risk Assessment Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Water Engineering, June 2008
McGahey, C.and Sayers, P.B (2008) Long term planning – robust strategic decision making in the face of gross uncertainty. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. (2008)
Lhomme, J.and Sayers, PB. and Gouldby, B.P. and Samuels, P.G. and Wills, M. and Mulet-Marti, J (2008).. Recent development and application of a rapid flood spreading method. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. (2008)
Pullen, T.A.and Saulter, A. and Hawkes, P.J. and Sayers, P.B. and Tozer, N.P. and Flowerdew, J. and Horsburgh, K. (2008). Use of field measurements to improve probabilistic wave overtopping forecasts. In: ICCE 2008 (31st International Conference on Coastal Engineering), 31 Aug - 5 Sept 2008, Hamburg, Germany. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814277426_0250
Sayers, P.B., Hall, J.W., Panzeri, M. and Deakin, R. (2007) Chapter 25: Quantified analysis of future flood risk management portfolios in England and Wales. In, Thorne, C.R., Evans, E.P. and Penning-Rowsell, E.C. (eds.) Future Flood and Coastal Erosion Risks. Thomas Telford, London. pp. 433-458.
Krupka, M., Pender, G., Wallis, S., Sayers, PB., & Mulet-Marti, J. (2007, July). A rapid flood inundation model. In Proceedings Of
The Congress-International Association For Hydraulic Research (Vol. 32, No. 1,p. 28).
Townend, I.H.and Elliott, C. and Sayers, P.B. (2007). Controlled dissemination and uptake of research. In: 42nd Defra Flood and Coastal Management Conference, 3-5 July 2007, York, UK.
Sayers, P.B and Marti, (2006) RFSM - Rapid Flood Spreading Method - Initial Development. Developed as part of Floodsite and TE2100 by Marti and Sayers, HR Wallingford report for the Environment Agency.
Hall JW; Sayers PB; Walkden MJA; Panzeri M (2006). Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 2006, 364(1841), 1027-1049
Sayers, P.B.and Tarrant, O. and Gouldby, B.P. and Kavanagh, David and Panzeri, M. (2006). Thames estuary - Establishing a robust flood system model to support engineering investment decisions.In: 41st Defra Flood and Coastal Management Conference, 4- 6 July 2006, University of York, UK.
Hall JW; Dawson RJ; Manning LJ; Walkden MJA; Dickson ME; Sayers PB (2006). Managing changing risks to infrastructure systems.. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Civil Engineering 2006, 159 (Special Issue 2), 21-27.
Sayers, P.B.and Simm, J.D. and Wallis, M. and Buijs, F. and Flikweert, J. and Hamer, B.(2006). Developing a performance - based management system for flood and coastal defence assets. In: 41st Defra Flood and Coastal Management Conference, 4- 6 July 2006, University of York, UK.
Sayers PB and Meadowcroft IC (2005). RASP - A hierarchy of risk-based methods and their application. Proceedings of the 40th Defra Conf. of River and Coastal Management.
Dawson, R., Hall, J., Sayers, P., Bates, P. and Rosu, C., 2005. Sampling-based flood risk analysis for fluvial dike systems. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 19(6), pp.388-402.
Buijs F, Sayers PB, Simm J, Wallis M (2005). Performance & Reliability of Flood & Coastal Defence Structures TR1 and TR2. A report for the Environment Agency.
Sayers PB and Meadowcroft IC (2005). Strategic approaches to coastal management. Paper presented to the ComRisk2 final conference, Kiel Germany, 2005.
Sayers, Hall, Meadowcroft, Rosu, Dawson, Chatterton, Deakin (2004) RASP - Risk Assessment for Strategic Planning - Technical summary Report. A Report for the Environment Agency
Sayers, Hall, Meadowcroft, Rosu, Dawson, Chatterton, Deakin (2004) RASP - Risk Assessment for Strategic Planning - Intermediate Level Method Coastal Case Main Text. A Report for the Environment Agency
Sayers, Hall, Meadowcroft, Rosu, Dawson, Chatterton, Deakin (2004) RASP - Risk Assessment for Strategic Planning - Intermediate Level Method Fluvial Case Main Text. A Report for the Environment Agency
Buijs, F, Sayers P, Hall J (2004). 2004 RASP Supporting reports - Detailed Level Methods - PC Ring. A Report for the Environment Agency
Sayers PB, Hawkes P, Tozer, N (2004). Best Practice in Coastal Flood Forecasting. A report prepared by HR Wallingford for the Environment Agency. Associated Conference Paper Hawkes, Sayers and Khatibi (2004) is here
Sayers P, Simm, J and Ogunyoye (2004). Establishing a performance-based asset management system for flood defences (PAMS). Conference paper - Defra 2004
Sayers, P Simm J, Ohl C, Ogunyoye F, Oldfield, S (2004) .Performance-based Asset Management System (PAMS) – Phase 1 Scoping Study Technical Report. A report by HR Wallingford for the Environment Agency.
Evans, E.P., Ashley, R., Hall, J.W., Penning-Rowsell, E.P., Saul, A., Sayers, PB., Thorne, C.R. and Watkinson, A. (2004b). Foresight Future Flooding, Scientific Summary: Volume 2: Managing future risks. Office of Science and Technology, London.
Evans, E.P., Ashley, R., Hall, J.W., Penning-Rowsell, E.P., Saul, A., Sayers, PB., Thorne, C.R. and Watkinson, A. (2004a).
Foresight Future Flooding, Scientific Summary: Volume 1: Future risks and their drivers. Office of Science and Technology, London.
Buijs, F.and van Gelder, P. and Vrijling, J. and Vrouwenvelder, A. and Hall, J. and Sayers, P.B. and Wehrung, M. (2003). Application of Dutch reliability-based flood defence design in the UK. In: Safety and Reliability. Swets & Zeitlinger (Taylor and Francis), pp. 311-319. ISBN 90 5809 551 7 (2003)
Dawson R, Sayers PB, Hall JW, Bates P (2003). Flood risk assessment for Shoreline Management Planning. Proceeding of the
ICE International Conference on Coastal Management, Brighton, UK 2003
Ohl, C, Frew, P, .Sayers,P.B Watson, G, Lawton, J, Farrow, J, Walkden M, and Hall J (2003).. North Norfolk - a regional approach to coastal erosion management and sustainability in practice.International Conference on Coastal Management 2003. January 2003, 226-240
Hall JW; Meadowcroft IC; Sayers PB; Bramley ME (2003).Integrated flood risk management in England and Wales. Natural Hazards Review 2003, 4(3), 126-135.
Hall JW; Evans EP; Penning-Rowsell EC; Sayers PB; Thorne CR; Saul AJ (2003). Quantified scenarios analysis of
drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100. Environmental Hazards 2003, 5(3-4), 51-65.
Hall JW; Dawson RJ; Sayers P; Rosu C; Chatterton J; Deakin R (2003). A methodology for national-scale flood risk assessment. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water & Maritime Engineering 2003, 156(3), 235-247. Robert Carr Prize
Sayers PB, Meadowcroft IC, Hall, JW, Gouldby BP, Simm J (2002). Risk, performance and uncertainty in flood and coastal management - A review. A report for the Environment Agency by HR Wallingford. Also summarised in Meadowcroft IC, Sayers PB, Hall JW. (2002) paper of the same title presented at the Annual Conference of River and Coastal Engineers, University of Keele, June 2002.
Sayers PB; Hall JW; Meadowcroft IC (2002). Towards risk-based flood hazard management in the UK. Civil Engineering 2002, 150(5), 36-42.
Sayers PB, Motyka G, Mockett, I, Brooke J (2001) Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy Plan. A report by HR Wallingford for Environment Agency and Shepway District Council. (Laying the foundations for the development of fragility curves, system analysis, RASP and NaFRA)
Sayers PB, Meadowcroft IC, Moody, A, Gouldby B, Crossman, M (2001). Integrating reliable flood modelling with probabilistic analysis in practice. Proceedings of the MAFF River and Coastal Engineering Conference, UK
Deakin R, Burgess, K, Smauels P, Sayers PB and Chatterton J (2001). National Assets at Risk Under Climate Change. Proceedings of the MAFF River and Coastal Engineering Conference, UK
Scrimpf, W, Sayers PB, Millard, K (2000). DESIMA - Decision Support system for integrated coastal zone MAnagement. Research for the Joint Reserach Centre, Ispra.
Sayers PB, Allsop, W and Hill A (1998). Alderney Breakwater - Scheme evolution. Proceedings of the international conference of coastal engineering, 1998.
Coates, Motyka, Carpenter, Powell and Sayers (1997). East Solent Shoreline Management Plan. HR Wallingford.