NEWS
Paul Sayers is now a member of Strategic Advisor Panel for a major research initiative into drought and water scarcity issues: MaRIUS: Managing risks, impacts and uncertainties of droughts and water scarcity. The project is lead by Prof Jim Hall at the University of Oxford.
Sayers and Partners have been appointed to provide a review of the 'Impacts of climate change on flood and coastal erosion infrastructure' - the study commissioned by LWEC (Living with Environmental Change) is to provide an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the performance, planning, design and management of engineered and natural flood and coastal infrastructure. The reports are due for publication later this year as part of the LWEC Climate Report Cards.
Comparison of flood hazard estimation methods for dam safety - CEATI have recently published the findings from this study lead by Sayers and Partners here. An associated training programme has also been established.
Climate Change Risk Assessment, Report Card for Flood and Coastal Erosion Infrastructure. Paul Sayers is leading the update of the CCRA Report Card. The Report Card will provide a summary of the scientific evidence on the current and future impacts of anthropogenic climate change on Infrastructure provision. This will then be used to inform government policy, investment and LWEC’s priorities for research and development. So far Report Cards have been produced on Water (2013) and Biodiversity (2013) (see http://www.lwec.org.uk/resources/report-cards).
Ibadan Flood Risk Management Strategy, Nigeria Paul Sayers is working within Ambential advising the World Bank and Ibadan government on a master plan for the city and the short term priority actions to mitigate flood risks.
Long term investment strategy for flood and coastal erosion risk management - Sayers and Partners are working with Halcrow and HaskoningDHV to review and update the Environment Agency's LTIS. The project will explore the level of investment needed in FCERM in the coming 10 to 50 years.
Drought risk management - Sayers and Partners are collaborating with WWF and the Chinese Ministry or Water on an international review and best practice guidance. In October 2013 Paul will be attending a project workshop in Suzhou.
Updating the Freeboard Guidance - Sayers and Partners are working within the Environment Agency and the RHDHV to update the freeboard design guidance in the context of modern risk concepts and approaches.
Formal assessment of uncertainty within NaFRA and MDSF2 - Sayers and Partners are working with the Environment Agency on a JBA led project to develop a structured approach to assessing the confidence and uncertainty that can be assigned to the assessment of the probability of flooding from national and regional applications of RASP (through NaFRA - National Flood Risk Assessment - and the MDSF2 - Modelling Decision Support Framework 2 - toolsets). Both Gross-Error-Potential (GEP) - arising from model structure errors - and Quantifiable Uncertainty - arising from data and model components - are being assessed.
Exploring the use of the Modelling decision support framework (MDSF2) to support flood risk management strategies - Paul Sayers lead the original development of MDSF2 - now widely used by the Environment Agency to assess flood risk at a national scale - and is now exploring the practicality of the its application to strategy studies. This work is being undertaken on behalf of the Environment Agency and in association with RHDHV.
Benchmarking framework for flood risk system models - Sayers and Partners are working with JBA on the development of a structured framework for benchmarking probabilistic flood risk system models, and in particular the National Flood Risk Assessment (NaFRA) and the Modelling Decision Support Framework (MDSF2).
Paul Sayers has taken up a position as a Senior Visiting Fellow at the University of Oxford, Environmental Change Institute and is now a Member of the Water Security Network
Training
Cutting Edge River Basin Management - Paul is contributing to series of WWF led webinars
UNESCO-IHE - Paul provides a contribution to the MSc course at UNESCO-IHE on 'Large scale, long term, approaches to flood defence asset management'
University of Plymouth (coastal engineering) - Assessing flood risk and the national flood risk assessment (NaFRA) - From 2013/4 Paul will provide a contribution to the MSc course at Plymouth University
New course offered by Sayers and CEATI - Extreme flood hazard estimation for dam safety. This is a course specifically targeted at dam owners and their consultants. It explores the range of approaches available to estimate extreme floods, their weaknesses and strengthens.
Publications
Book Launched May 2013 at the Asia Pacific Water Week: Flood risk management: A strategic approach. Published by UNESCO, WWF and ADB.
International - Flood risk management: A strategic approach (洪水风险管理：战略方针). Guidance developed in association with GIWP, China and WWF-UK/China has now been published in Chinese through waterpub.com.cn (ISBN 978-7-5170-0201-7).
ICE book published - Flood Risk: Design, Management and Planning of Flood Defence Infrastructure
Conferences and seminars
Challenges in flood risk management in urban areas of river deltas in South and South East Asia - Paul will attending
this workshop organised by Wilton Park and the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre are arranging on Wednesday 6 and Thursday
7 November 2013. Paul will also take part in a follow on workshop to encourage collaboration in science and innovation in South East Asia. Paul will be sharing experience with colleagues from the region and to encourage them to make better use of science in their planning of flood risk management. The workshop focuses on the Foresight future flooding approach and the need to include consideration of climate (and other) change in the planning of flood management. There will be attendance from the region as well as Thailand and the event will be timely in view of the renewed concerns about flood risk in Bangkok (see http://bangkokpost.com/news/local/371461/floods-move-south-but-officials-more-concerned-about-bangkok) and the new IPCC report.
LWEC - Decision-Making in the Twilight of Uncertainty - Paul will attending this meeting later in the year to discuss emerging academic and practical approaches.
Asian Water Week - Paul Sayers attended the Asain Water Week in Manila to discuss strategic approaches to drought and flood risks
Floodrisk2012 - Paul Sayers presented three papers in Rotterdam, November 2012 - see Floodrisk2012
Planning for extreme events - international workshop, Canada - A water management and dam safety perspective Sayers and EDF presented the findings of an on-going project into the estimation of extreme flood flows. October 2012
Foresight Future Flooding Exchange - UK and Australia (2012)
Sayers and Partners have been appointed to provide a review of the 'Impacts of climate change on flood and coastal erosion infrastructure' - the study commissioned by LWEC (Living with Environmental Change) is to provide an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the performance, planning, design and management of engineered and natural flood and coastal infrastructure. The reports are due for publication later this year as part of the LWEC Climate Report Cards.
Comparison of flood hazard estimation methods for dam safety - CEATI have recently published the findings from this study lead by Sayers and Partners here. An associated training programme has also been established.
Climate Change Risk Assessment, Report Card for Flood and Coastal Erosion Infrastructure. Paul Sayers is leading the update of the CCRA Report Card. The Report Card will provide a summary of the scientific evidence on the current and future impacts of anthropogenic climate change on Infrastructure provision. This will then be used to inform government policy, investment and LWEC’s priorities for research and development. So far Report Cards have been produced on Water (2013) and Biodiversity (2013) (see http://www.lwec.org.uk/resources/report-cards).
Ibadan Flood Risk Management Strategy, Nigeria Paul Sayers is working within Ambential advising the World Bank and Ibadan government on a master plan for the city and the short term priority actions to mitigate flood risks.
Long term investment strategy for flood and coastal erosion risk management - Sayers and Partners are working with Halcrow and HaskoningDHV to review and update the Environment Agency's LTIS. The project will explore the level of investment needed in FCERM in the coming 10 to 50 years.
Drought risk management - Sayers and Partners are collaborating with WWF and the Chinese Ministry or Water on an international review and best practice guidance. In October 2013 Paul will be attending a project workshop in Suzhou.
Updating the Freeboard Guidance - Sayers and Partners are working within the Environment Agency and the RHDHV to update the freeboard design guidance in the context of modern risk concepts and approaches.
Formal assessment of uncertainty within NaFRA and MDSF2 - Sayers and Partners are working with the Environment Agency on a JBA led project to develop a structured approach to assessing the confidence and uncertainty that can be assigned to the assessment of the probability of flooding from national and regional applications of RASP (through NaFRA - National Flood Risk Assessment - and the MDSF2 - Modelling Decision Support Framework 2 - toolsets). Both Gross-Error-Potential (GEP) - arising from model structure errors - and Quantifiable Uncertainty - arising from data and model components - are being assessed.
Exploring the use of the Modelling decision support framework (MDSF2) to support flood risk management strategies - Paul Sayers lead the original development of MDSF2 - now widely used by the Environment Agency to assess flood risk at a national scale - and is now exploring the practicality of the its application to strategy studies. This work is being undertaken on behalf of the Environment Agency and in association with RHDHV.
Benchmarking framework for flood risk system models - Sayers and Partners are working with JBA on the development of a structured framework for benchmarking probabilistic flood risk system models, and in particular the National Flood Risk Assessment (NaFRA) and the Modelling Decision Support Framework (MDSF2).
Paul Sayers has taken up a position as a Senior Visiting Fellow at the University of Oxford, Environmental Change Institute and is now a Member of the Water Security Network
Training
Cutting Edge River Basin Management - Paul is contributing to series of WWF led webinars
UNESCO-IHE - Paul provides a contribution to the MSc course at UNESCO-IHE on 'Large scale, long term, approaches to flood defence asset management'
University of Plymouth (coastal engineering) - Assessing flood risk and the national flood risk assessment (NaFRA) - From 2013/4 Paul will provide a contribution to the MSc course at Plymouth University
New course offered by Sayers and CEATI - Extreme flood hazard estimation for dam safety. This is a course specifically targeted at dam owners and their consultants. It explores the range of approaches available to estimate extreme floods, their weaknesses and strengthens.
Publications
Book Launched May 2013 at the Asia Pacific Water Week: Flood risk management: A strategic approach. Published by UNESCO, WWF and ADB.
International - Flood risk management: A strategic approach (洪水风险管理：战略方针). Guidance developed in association with GIWP, China and WWF-UK/China has now been published in Chinese through waterpub.com.cn (ISBN 978-7-5170-0201-7).
ICE book published - Flood Risk: Design, Management and Planning of Flood Defence Infrastructure
Conferences and seminars
Challenges in flood risk management in urban areas of river deltas in South and South East Asia - Paul will attending
this workshop organised by Wilton Park and the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre are arranging on Wednesday 6 and Thursday
7 November 2013. Paul will also take part in a follow on workshop to encourage collaboration in science and innovation in South East Asia. Paul will be sharing experience with colleagues from the region and to encourage them to make better use of science in their planning of flood risk management. The workshop focuses on the Foresight future flooding approach and the need to include consideration of climate (and other) change in the planning of flood management. There will be attendance from the region as well as Thailand and the event will be timely in view of the renewed concerns about flood risk in Bangkok (see http://bangkokpost.com/news/local/371461/floods-move-south-but-officials-more-concerned-about-bangkok) and the new IPCC report.
LWEC - Decision-Making in the Twilight of Uncertainty - Paul will attending this meeting later in the year to discuss emerging academic and practical approaches.
Asian Water Week - Paul Sayers attended the Asain Water Week in Manila to discuss strategic approaches to drought and flood risks
Floodrisk2012 - Paul Sayers presented three papers in Rotterdam, November 2012 - see Floodrisk2012
Planning for extreme events - international workshop, Canada - A water management and dam safety perspective Sayers and EDF presented the findings of an on-going project into the estimation of extreme flood flows. October 2012
Foresight Future Flooding Exchange - UK and Australia (2012)